No 14, Issue 1       

THE TAIWAN CRISIS AS A POTENTIAL GLOBAL FLASHPOINT: A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF PRC-US CONFRONTATION (2027–2028)

Nurlan UMUDOV

pp. 5-21

Abstract

This research provides a comprehensive geopolitical and strategic evaluation of the Taiwan crisis, examining its evolution from the 1949 Chinese Civil War to the contemporary era. By analyzing the divergent interests of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States, the study assesses how territorial integrity, maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific, and global technological leadership act as primary catalysts for escalation. Special attention is given to recent military-technological advancements, including the PRC’s hypersonic missile programs and Taiwan’s asymmetric “Porcupine Strategy,” alongside the intensification of U.S.-led regional alliances. Furthermore, the paper investigates critical variables such as executive leadership shifts in Washington and their implications for foreign policy continuity. By evaluating potential conflict scenarios and tactical objectives, the study suggests that the 2027–2028 period could represents an elevated risk window for potential regional instability. The research emphasizes the imperative for diplomatic de-escalation to prevent the Taiwan Strait from escalating into a broader conflict.

Keywords: Taiwan Strait, Indo-Pacific Security, Asymmetric Warfare, Geopolitics, PRC-US Relations, Strategic Forecasting.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.