No 11, Issue 1
Bangladesh’s Evolving Balancing Strategy: From Two-Way To Three-Way?
Mufassir RASHID| Nishat TASNIM| Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy PROMA
Pages: 58-82
Abstract
Bangladesh has followed a balancing approach in its external relations historically. Over the last five decades, the balancing behaviour has undergone qualitative change due to Bangladesh’s evolving national interest and power dynamics. Bangladesh has been striking a balance between India and China for a while now. However, the situation has changed since the announcement of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the revival of QUAD and the inking AUKUS pact. To counter the growing Chinese presence, a US stake has become visible in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, Bangladesh is now directly balancing the interests of three superpowers, India, China, and the USA. Existing literature cannot explain this new balancing scenario. This paper aims to explain Bangladesh’s evolving balancing strategy. To do so, this paper will look at Bangladesh’s foreign policy from a historical perspective and focus on the latest development in the Indo-Pacific region. To overcome the limits of existing literature, this paper will attempt to develop a new balancing framework, Three-Way Balancing. This paper will also focus on how Bangladesh can maintain its tradition of neutrality amid heated geopolitics between these three states. This paper will follow a qualitative approach and analyse secondary literature.
Keywords
Balancing, Bangladesh Foreign Policy, Soft-Balancing, Three-Way balancing, Indo-Pacific Strategy
References
97% Bangladeshi products to get duty-free access to China (2020) Dhaka Tribune. Available from: https://archive.dhakatribune.com/business/2020/06/19/5-161-more-bangladeshi-products-to-enjoy-zero-tariff-to-chinese-markets-from-july-1
Aditya S (2021) Bangladesh’s Dillema between Big Brothers India and China. South Florida Journal of Development 2(3): 4468–4479.
Ahmed I (2022) Bangladesh must keep maintaining its balancing act. The Business Standard, 17th March. Available from: https://www.tbsnews.net/analysis/bangladesh-must-keep-maintaining-its-balancing-act-386910
Al Mabrur S (2020) Bangladesh’s Strategic Hedging towards India and China: Challenges and Options. Researchgate, thesis. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352778372_Bangladesh’s_ Strategic_Hedging_towards_India_and_China_Challenges_and_Options
Anwar A (2019) China’s Growing Engagement in South Asia: Challenges for the US. Pacific Forum, thesis. Available from: https://pacforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/issuesinsights_Vol19WP6.pdf.
Anwar A (2022a) Bangladesh’s Balancing Act Amid China-India Rivalry for Regional Influence. Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, web log, National University Singapore. Available from: https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/cag/publications/center-publications/publication-article/detail/bangladesh’s-balancing-act-amid-china-india-rivalry-for-regional-influence.
Anwar (2022b) China-Bangladesh relations: A three way balance between China, India and the US, rep., MERICS. Available from: https://merics.org/en/china-bangladesh-relations-three-way-balance-between-china-india-and-us.
Anwar A, Macdonald G, Markey D, et al. (2022) Bangladesh’s Balancing Act Amid the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. United States Institute of Peace. Available from: https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/04/bangladeshs-balancing-act-amid-us-indo-pacific-strategy.
Bangladesh’s exports to India to grow record $2 billion by FY22: FBCCI (2022) The Daily Star. Available from: https://www.thedailystar.net/business/export/news/bangladeshs-exports-india-grow-record-2-billion-fy22-fbcci-2941941 (accessed 29 April 2023).
Barry, B (1974) “Man and Citizen. By Thomas Hobbes. Edited with an Introduction by Bernard Gert. (Garden City, New York: Anchor Books, Doubleday & Co. Inc., 1972. Pp. 386. $2.95, Paper.).” American Political Science Review 68 (2). Cambridge University Press: 759–60. doi:10.2307/1959528.
Bhardwaj S (2018) Bangladesh foreign policy vis-a-vis India. Strategic Analysis. Available from: http://www.academia.edu/35787508/Bangladesh_Foreign_Policy_ Vis_a_Vis_India. (accessed 29 April 2023).
Bhatia R (2019) Bangladesh’s India-China Balancing Strategy. Gateway House. Available from: https://www.gatewayhouse.in/bangladesh-foreign-policy/. (accessed 29 April 2023).
Bhattacharjee N (2021) China’s warning to Bangladesh on the quad. – The Diplomat, for The Diplomat. Available from: https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/chinas-warning-to-bangladesh-on-the-quad/. (accessed 29 April 2023).
Brown C, Nardin T and Rennger N (2002) International Relations in Political Thought: Texts from the Ancient Greeks to the First World War. Cambridge.
Chand B (2019) Dynamics of rivalry between geographically Contiguous Regional Powers: The case of Sino-Indian competition. Asian Politics & Policy 11(1): 122–143. 10.1111/aspp.12436
Chowdhury D (2022) Revisiting Bangladesh-India Partnership: Latest Trends and achievements. The London Globalist. Available from: https://thelondonglobalist.org/revisiting-bangladesh-india-partnership-latest-trends-and-achievements/.
Chowdhury I (2011) Foundations of Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Interactions, working paper. pp. 2–5 Available from:
Christensen T.J and Snyder J (1990) “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity.” International Organization 44 (2) P.137–68, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706792
Ciorciari JD and Haacke J (2019) “Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 19 (3) p. 367–74. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcz017.
Congressional Research Service (2022). “The ‘Quad’: Security Cooperation Among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia,” July 25, 2022, 6 edition. https://crsreports.congress.gov.
Deb S and Wilson N (2021) The coming of quad and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Air University (AU). Available from: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2870653/the-coming-of-quad-and-the-balance-of-power-in-the-indo-pacific/
Feng H and He K (2017) Soft balancing. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.549.
Fox AB (1969) The Small States in the International System, 1919-1969. International Journal 24(4): 751–764. Available from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40200289.
Haroon JU (2022) China becomes Bangladesh’s top trading partner again. The Financial Express, 1st August. Available from: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/trade/china-becomes-bangladeshs-top-trading-partner-again-1659319605.
Hassan AM (2022) Tough Love – Bangladeshi Foreign Policy on China, India, and the US. Dhaka Tribune, 4th December. Available from: https://archive.dhakatribune.com/opinion/op-ed/2020/12/22/op-ed-tough-love-bangladeshi-foreign-policy-on-china-india-and-the-us.
Helmreich PC (2002) No Virtue like Necessity: Realist Thought in International Relations since Machiavelli, History: Reviews of New Books, 31:1, 44, DOI: 10.1080/03612759.2002.10526356
Hossain D and Islam MS (2021) Understanding Bangladesh’s Relations with India and China: Dilemmas and Responses. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region: 17(1): 42–59. Available From: https://doi.org/10.1080/19480881.2021.1878582.
Hossain D and Islam MS (2022) The Five Decades of Making, Unmaking and Remaking of Bangladesh Foreign Policy. The Journal of Bangladesh and Global Affairs 1 (1).
Hossain I (2018) Bangladesh Balances between Big Brothers China and India. East Asia Forum, 6th June. Available From: www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/06/bangladesh-balances-between-big-brothers-china-and-india/.
Hossain, S (2011) The Changing Pattern of Bangladesh Foreign Policy in Different Political Regimes. Academia, p. 2–8.
https://archive.dhakatribune.com/business/2020/06/19/5-161-more-bangladeshi-products-to-enjoy-zero-tariff-to-chinese-markets-from-july-1
Hussain A (2005) Bangladesh’s New Foreign Policy Direction in Southeast and East Asia: Perspective and Goals. 1 Jan. Academia.
Huzen KB (1995) Geopolitics and Foreign Policy of Bangladesh. thesis, Institute of Bangladesh Studies.
Huzen KB (2019) Foreign Policy of Bangladesh: The Dilemmas of Weak State. Academia.
Ian CJ (2003) Revisiting Responses To Power Preponderance: Going Beyond The Balancing-Bandwagoning Dichotomy. Rep., RSIS. Available From: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/54-wp054-revisiting-responses-t/#.ZEzidHZBzIU
INDOPACIFIC STRATEGY (2022). Whitehouse. Available From: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf.
Karim A (2022) The QUAD Formation: Is It a High-politics Approach? Ramifications for South Asia and Bangladesh. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 24(1): 125–139. Doi:10.22883/kjda.2022.34.1.007
Kliem F (2020) Why Quasi-Alliances Will Persist in the Indo-Pacific? The Fall and Rise of the Quad. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 7 (3): 271–304. Available From: https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797020962620.
Korolev A (2016) Russia-China-India Triangle – Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging. China-India Brief, March.
Kumar Das, S (2010) India’s Look East Policy: Imagining a New Geography for India’s North-East. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs.
Labs EJ (1992) Do Weak States Bandwagon? Security Studies 1 (3): 383–416. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419209347476.
Li Q and Ye M (2019). China’s Emerging Partnership Network: What, Who, Where, When and Why. International Trade, Politics and Development 3(2): 66–81. https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-05-2019-0004.
Lim DJ and Mukherjee R (2019) Hedging in South Asia: Balancing Economic and Security Interests amid Sino-Indian Competition. P. 493–522. Oxford University Press, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. 14th May. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/irap/article-abstract/19/3/493/5489338.
Mearsheimer JJ (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Minar SJ (2018) Grand Strategy and Foreign Policy: How Grand Strategy Can Aid Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Rethinking? Journal of Social Studies 1(4):20-27.
Mirdha RU (2022) Deals with China a Turning Point for Bangladesh. The Daily Star. 5th December. Available From: https://www.thedailystar.net/business/deals-china-turning-point-bangladesh-1299802.
Morgenthau HJ (n.d) Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace.
Mueen M (2019) ROLE of BANGLADESH in UNITED NATION PEACE KEEPING OPERATION. Academia.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2017) Whitehouse. https://www.whitehouse.gov/ wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
Nazir, I (2021) Chinese Pursuit of Economic Pre-Balancing: a Silent Weapon to Weaken US Hegemony. Perspective (blog). Available From: https://perspectivebd.com/archives/4264.
Paul T.V. (2005) Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy. International Security 30 (1): 46–71. Available From: https://doi.org/10.1162/0162288054894652.
Paul T.V.(2018) When Balance of Power Meets Globalization: China, India and the Small States of South Asia. Politics 39(1): 50–63. Available From: https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395718779930.
Paul TV, Wirtz JJ and Fortmann M (2004) Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford University Press.
PurushothamanU (2015) Political and Military Strategies of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific. Edited by I︠U︡riĭ Bi︠a︡lyĭ.
Rahman A (2022) Bangladesh, US Approve Draft Pact on Defence Cooperation. The Print, 20th March. Available From: https://theprint.in/world/bangladesh-us-approve-draft-pact-on-defence-cooperation/881189/.
Rajagopalan R (2020) Evasive Balancing: India’s Unviable Indo-Pacific Strategy. International Affairs 96 (1): 75–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz224.
Rashid MM (2022) Balancing Quad-China: Why Bandwagoning and Hedging Are Unviable for Bangladesh. The Geo Politics, 25th February. Available From: https://thegeopolitics.com/balancing-quad-china-why-bandwagoning-and-hedging-are-unviable-for-bangladesh/.
Schweller RL (2016) The Balance of Power in World Politics, In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, by Randall L. Schweller. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.119.
Shahid R (2021) At 50, Bangladesh Perfects an India-China ‘Balancing Act’.
Sheehan M (2005) The Balance of Power: History and Theory. London: Taylor & Francis e-Library.
Siddiquee MA (2022) Great Power Rivalry in the Indian Ocean Region and Bangladesh: Challenges and Responses. Journal of Bangladesh and Global Affairs 1 (2). Available From: https://doi.org/10.55875/jbga.bd.oct22.001.
Singh A (2017) The ‘Indo-Pacific’ Has Always Been about Containing the Rise of China. South China Morning Post, 28th November. Available From: https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2121907/indo-pacific-has-always-been-about-containing-rise-china.
Siow M (2022) In South Asia, Bangladesh’s ‘Deft’ Balancing of US, China and India Ties Stands Out. South China Morning Post, 22nd May. Available From: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3178475/south-asia-bangladeshs-deft-balancing-us-china-and-india-ties.
Tziampiris A (2015) Balance of Power and Soft Balancing. In The Emergence of Israeli-Greek Cooperation, by Aristotle Tziampiris, 21–37. Cham: Springer International Publishing. Available From: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12604-3_2.
US wants Bangladesh to join IPS (2022) Prothom Alo, Prothom Alo, 23rd March. Available from: https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/us-wants-bangladesh-to-join-ips.
Waltz KN (1978) Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Yasmin L (2018) Understanding the Concept and Vision of BRI: The Economic, Cultural and Historical Aspects. Peace and Security Review, 8 (19, Fourth Quarter): 26–37.
Yasmin, L (2019) India and China in South Asia: Bangladesh’s Opportunities and Challenges. Millennial Asia, 10 (3): 322.
Yasmin, L (2022) Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Goals for 2041. Dhaka Tribune. 28th June. Available From: https://www.dhakatribune.com/special-supplement/2022/06/28/bangladeshs-foreign-policy-goals-for-2041.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.